NX1's NIL Playbook Newsletter - First Edition

The transfer portal has fundamentally changed college football recruitment, but NIL has turbocharged that transformation. According to Business of College Sports, what was once a long-term commitment to a single institution now resembles free agency in professional sports—and NIL is the currency driving every transaction (https://businessofcollegesports.com/other/the-transfer-portal-nil-and-the-arms-race-in-recruiting/).

Athletes are no longer just seeking the best program on the field—they're looking for the best NIL package off the field. Playing time matters, but so does exposure for brand deals. Coaching stability is important, but a school's collective funding and ability to facilitate NIL opportunities can be the deciding factor. Business of College Sports emphasizes that the portal has become a talent recruiting battlefield where an excellent off-field NIL package can be just as important as on-field opportunity.

ESPN reports that the portal officially opens on January 2nd for a frenzied two-week period of transactions (https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/47086036/college-football-2025-2026-transfer-portal-preview-tampering-carousel-cap).

According to industry data from The Portal Report cited by Sports Illustrated, in just the first three days of the portal opening, 5.9% of all Division I football players declared their intention to transfer. Even more striking: quarterbacks entered at nearly double the average rate, with 10.8% of signal callers already indicating their choice to leave their current teams (https://www.si.com/fannation/name-image-likeness/nil-news/college-football-free-agency-transfer-portal-trends-and-nil-impact).

Why the quarterback surge? Because NIL has made the quarterback position the most valuable in college football. Elite signal callers can command NIL packages that rival professional contracts.

The financial stakes have never been higher, and NIL valuations are driving every transfer decision. Sports Illustrated reports that Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt, who entered the portal, has an estimated NIL valuation of $2.1 million (https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/transfer-portal/2-1-million-qb-sam-leavitt-ranked-as-top-quarterback-in-college-football-transfer-portal).

Think about that: a college quarterback has a $2.1 million price tag. That's not his salary—that's his estimated market value based on what schools and collectives are willing to pay to secure his services.

CBS Sports highlighted even more eye-popping numbers, noting that Nebraska's Dylan Raiola had a $3.5 million revenue share/NIL package, yet still entered the portal. Meanwhile, Miami quarterback Cam Ward's transfer was estimated to cost around $4 million in NIL compensation (https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-transfer-portal-2025-26-quarterback-market-reset/).

This is the new normal. Top-tier transfers are negotiating NIL packages worth millions, and programs that can't compete financially are getting left behind.

Business of College Sports raises a critical point: the NIL-portal connection has widened the divide between elite programs and those that are not as well-endowed. Institutions with high wealth can present larger NIL opportunities and stronger transfer pitches, potentially abandoning small schools (https://businessofcollegesports.com/other/the-transfer-portal-nil-and-the-arms-race-in-recruiting/).

This creates a talent consolidation problem. Schools with established collectives and deep-pocketed donors can essentially "buy" entire rosters through the portal, while smaller programs become farm teams, developing talent that gets poached as soon as players prove their worth.

The competitive imbalance raises serious questions about the future of college sports. Can smaller schools compete? Will NIL create a permanent two-tier system where only the wealthiest programs can win championships?

One of the biggest storylines heading into this portal cycle is how coaching changes impact NIL strategies. ESPN quoted an agent saying, "I think the domino effect is going to be massive," particularly as new head coaches attempt to bring dozens of players with them from their previous schools (https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/47086036/college-football-2025-2026-transfer-portal-preview-tampering-carousel-cap).

But here's the NIL twist: when a coach moves, they're not just bringing players—they're bringing NIL relationships. Coaches who've built strong connections with collectives at their previous schools are using those relationships to attract talent to their new programs. Athletic directors watched Indiana achieve back-to-back College Football Playoff runs under Coach Curt Cignetti by bringing 13 players from James Madison—players who came because they trusted Cignetti's ability to maximize their NIL opportunities.

Business of College Sports emphasizes that it's no longer just about the coach or facilities—it's about brand activation, networking, and off-field opportunities. Programs with stronger pockets and slicker marketing prowess have an advantage in recruiting (https://businessofcollegesports.com/other/the-transfer-portal-nil-and-the-arms-race-in-recruiting/).

This means collectives have become as important as coaching staffs. Schools are hiring directors of NIL strategy, building relationships with local businesses, and creating comprehensive NIL ecosystems that can compete for top talent. The recruitment pitch has evolved from "come play for us" to "come build your brand with us."

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or compliance advice.

Empowering student athletes and businesses to navigate NIL with clarity and confidence.

-The NX1 Team